Denver Nuggets Late Season Rotation
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Intro
With 23 games left to play in the 2022 NBA regular season, what will the Denver Nuggets late season rotations look like, assuming that we get Michael Porter Jr and Jamal Murray back? It is safe to say that the Nuggets are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, especially once they get back to a healthy status. But, with that talent depth, when the playoff rotations shrink, serious players will be left off the floor. What does the past tell us about Michael Malone, his playoff rotations, his minutes distribution, and which players might be reduced to cheerleaders or energy guys one the games start to matter?
The Nuggets are currently sitting in the 6th seed in the Western Conference. They are 2.5 games behind the Jazz for the top of their division. If the season ended today, they would be matched up against the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs, who have been absolutely burning this season. The Nuggets are 0-3 against the Grizzlies this year, and their fourth game is the second to last scheduled game of the season.
Assuming a healthy roster, and assuming they get a solid month of gelling time with Murray and Porter Jr in the rotation, who else can we expect to grace the floor and who does that imply will be left out? I don’t believe there is anyone contesting who the starting five for the Denver Nuggets will be, it’s the bench and the deep bench that will be a major controversy.
Starting Five
Nikola Jokic – C
Aaron Gordon – PF
Michael Porter Jr – SF
Will Barton – SG
Jamal Murray – PG
When healthy, most people agree that this is the starting five, Will Barton is a fan favorite to hate on, but he’s a glue guy that happens to live in Coach Malone’s good graces. I don’t have any issue with this starting five, as long as Will Barton is the 5th option on offense. I do believe and have held this belief for quite some time, that if Barton embraced the sixth man role and played a game like Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams, he’d be more respected and beloved, but he insists he’s an NBA starter and his ego gets in his way a little bit.
Bench Unit
Monte Morris – PG
Bryn Forbes – SG
Jeff Green – SF
JaMycal Green – PF
Demarcus Cousins – C
I think in years past, Monte Morris has served as the anchor to the Nuggets second unit, and with the starting five pretty set in stone, Monte will be the first man off the bench. In the past few post-seasons, Mike Malone has narrowed his bench to 10 players, with minutes distribution looking like Starters receiving 25-36 minutes each based on performance and matchups, three bench players receiving about 18-21 minutes, and two additional bench players receiving 10 minutes for rest and energy guys.
I believe that the Denver Nuggets brought in Bryn Forbes to be the veteran shooter/scorer to accompany Monte Morris off of the bench, fans should expect him to earn 15-20 minutes per game. Jeff Green has been in the starting lineup for most of the season, after all of the injuries, and he has been a major factor in the teams success. I think he was brought in and originally envisioned as a veteran depth player who has nearly 80 games of playoff experience.
Personally, I’ve been really frustrated with JaMycal Green’s minutes this season, as he hasn’t shot well all year, his defense has been bad at best, and he has been committing bad fouls all year. That being said, he is gritty, tough and was brought in to prevent the team from being bullied. Demarcus “Boogie” Cousins has officially been signed for the rest of the season, and it seems foolish to assume he wouldn’t be the anchor of the second unit, the Nuggets are undefeated in 2022 after Boogie was added to the
This rotation, in my mind, is the veteran unit that was envisioned when the roster was constructed. These players all understand how the game elevates in the playoffs, they all have experience, and they are all considered veterans that have been around the league and won’t be prone to mental mistakes. This rotation, in my mind, is what Mike Malone will lean on with other bench players maybe touching the court for small bursts or on blowout wins or losses.
Outside Looking In
What does this mean? Bones Hyland, Austin Rivers, Zeke Nnaji, Davon Reed, Facundo Campazzo are all on the outside looking in. Bones has been a rotational player all year, is it reasonable to believe that he wouldn’t touch the floor in the playoffs? Zeke Nnaji has been above JaMycal Green on the depth chart for most of the year, does he really lose time in the playoffs? Austin Rivers has been a great on-ball guard defender, a streaky scorer, and is also a playoff veteran, and he’s not going to touch the floor? I think every game has the potential to vary by strategy and matchup, but I think playing rookie and second year players in the playoffs is a risky situation, we’ve seen Bones go nuts, and we’ve seen him have bad bad games, that variability isn’t what you want in the playoffs.
I think that Austin Rivers and Bryn Forbes could likely be the bench guards after Monte Morris, but Rivers doesn’t default to the rotation in my mind. Maybe if we play Golden State or Phoenix, he will be a good defensive match for the talented guards, but besides that he’s a deep bench guy in my mind. Maybe if the offense is stale and non-functional, I could see Bones being thrown in to boost morale and try to ignite the offense, but I don’t think he ends up being the default first rotation off the bench. Now, I don’t want anyone to believe that I think this is the BEST scenario, this is just what I think will happen based on past playoffs.
I think Zeke Nnaji should be the PF with the second unit over JaMycal Green, and Bones should be touching the floor every game, but not necessarily 10+ minutes. I have a hard time believing that Bones cracks the rotation over Bryn Forbes and Monte Morris, but perhaps the bench unit goes small ball around Demarcus Cousins with Monte, Bryn, Bones and Austin. Different matchups and strategies will definitely impact which players are on the floor, I don’t think these rotations are set in stone, but I do believe when the playoffs are over, these players will have lead the team in playoff minutes and hopefully to an NBA Championship.
Conclusion
One of the best problems to have as we approach the end of the regular season, too much versatility and talent on the roster. If these Nuggets get healthy and spend the last month of the season getting everyone on the same page, they boast one of the best starting fives in the NBA, one of the most talented rosters top to bottom, and one of the most versatile rosters that is capable of every NBA lineup combination possible.
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