Overview

I have had a fun time reviewing this Denver Broncos season, because it was simultaneously one of the most frustrating seasons I’ve ever watched, combined with a mid-season turnaround that gave us playoff hopes, an end of season collapse, and Russell Wilson drama. I am saving the QB situation until the end, if you’re only interest in that, skip to the end. It is the least exciting position to me since it is covered by 100% of the media ad nauseum.

The Denver Broncos finished their 2023-24 campaign at 8-9, one game under .500, for the seventh straight season under the winning record mark. This also marked the eighth straight year of not making the playoffs. These were obviously the two worst streaks the team has working against them, but significant steps were taken this season to give faith that 2024-25 we could buck the trends.

Now, let’s get two things out of the way, we lost nine games, and five of those games the Broncos beat themselves (or had an opportunity to win), in my opinion. Missed field goal against the Raiders and defense giving up a 5-minute drive to end the game week one, missed two-point conversion for OT against the Commanders, fumble on the last drive to lose the game against the Jets in a rivalry game, interception in the end zone against the Texans with 16 seconds to play, and the entire New England game… get the ball at the 25-yard line on the first play of the game just to have a turnover on downs. Miss a field goal. Fumble recovery for a touchdown. Fight back to tie the game. Defense gives up 43-yards in 53 seconds to lose on a 56-yard field goal to the worst offense and worst kicker in the NFL.

These frustrating losses, seem to mount up and end up defining the season. Year over year, I look back on a season and it is always a handful of games we were right there… but good teams win those games and bad teams lose those games. That is why coaches talk about winning culture and learning how to not lose games. Bad/middling teams can’t overcome mistakes, generally, and as Sean called out in his post season presser, we were 8-1 when we won the turnover battle, and we were 0-8 when we lost the turnover battle or were even.

I am going to review the offense in this piece, and I’ll do the defense next week!

Coaching

Bringing in Sean Payton proved to add the spark that the team needed, and he brought with him a culture of winning and leadership we hadn’t really had in Denver for some time. The offense jumped from 16.9 points per game to 21 points per game this season, moving from dead last in the league to 19^th. We had three more wins on the season from 2022. We were talking about the playoffs in December and playing meaningful games at the end of the year. The Broncos quickly cut bait on players like Randy Gregory and Frank Clark mid-season when their attitudes and production were more distracting than impactful. The Broncos got away from some annoying trends of being both the most injured and most penalized teams in the NFL, which to me is indicative of players not pressing and being well-coached to avoid unnecessary penalties.

They were able to win road games against division rivals, beating the Chargers in LA. They ended a streak of losses to the Chiefs that dated back to 2015, which provided a huge sigh of relief to Broncos Country. I think with these positives, there is reason to believe that Sean Payton was worth the draft capital and the massive contract, to pull him away from New Orleans and out of retirement. He has an edge, he can be prickly in post-game pressers, he wants to win more than anything, his offense schemes players open, he isn’t shy about being critical of players when they underperform. Sean Payton holds guys accountable; he takes responsibility when he is in the wrong, and as a result, the team took strides in the right direction this season.

Sean Payton has mentioned and been accused of scaling back the offense to accommodate Russ, but not really adapting his offense to fit him. The Run game was worthless for most of the season, and the passing offense was based around Payton’s concepts and not Russ’s strengths. So, to be fair to Russ, not running play action and not having a successful running game all season, were not complimentary to Russ’s elite talents. You’d like to have a coach that can adapt, that being said, Sean Payton has won games with his system with Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, and Trevor Siemian. He is a self-proclaimed QB whisperer, but Russell Wilson has proven to be untamable. You adapt to his playstyle, or you fail.

I think there were a few games and calls this season where I would have liked to do things differently, a few 4^th downs I wish we had kicked field goals. His challenge record was fine, but he really doesn’t challenge enough. Only 3 challenges on the season, 2 successful. I wish he would have challenged a few more plays this year and gone to battle for his guys. We might have had a few more touchdowns and sustained drives if he wasn’t sheepish with the challenge flag. If the Dolphins game never happened, I’d be more inclined to give a B+ or an A-, but that game was historically embarrassing and does carry weight with the fans and the league in general.

Grade – B-

Offensive Line

This group has taken the brunt of the blame, mainly from casuals, who tend to blame the O-line no matter what. The line cannot win 100% of the time, the players on the other side of the ball get paid as well. What you need to evaluate for offensive lineman and the line as a whole, are their strengths and weaknesses, and the percentage of plays they hold up and are successful… for instance, there was a time late in the season when a PFF article came out about the Broncos line, stating that of the 43 sacks Russ had taken on the season, only nine were the offensive lines fault. This means to me, that the line was amazing in protection, and that for the other 34 sacks, Russ either had time, a pass he could have completed, or he scrambled out of a clean pocket to get sacked. We all know that Russell Wilson is famous for his scrambling ability and his off-schedule throws, the problem is that he manufactures scrambles and off-schedule throws instead of throwing timing routes, routes over the middle of the field, or intermediate routes… countless times this season if he had climbed the pocket and delivered a ball to the crossing route, he could have avoided a sack, instead he would scramble into the arms of a DE.

ESPN published an article on the ninth of January, where they graded the pass blocking and run blocking of all Tackles and Interior offensive lineman, Garrett Bolles was the 13 best pass blocking Tackle in the league by success rate. Lloyd Cushenberry was the 11^th best interior offensive lineman in the league, in pass blocking success. Quinn Meinerz was lauded as a pro bowl alternate and constantly recognized as one of the best run blocking guards in the league with a mean streak. Ben Powers, in my opinion, could have had a better year, but he wasn’t bad, just not overwhelming for the money spent on him. For Mike McGlinchy, he was a captain of the team, he played injured most of the season, and his pass blocking at times was suspect. Mike also is known for his run blocking and leadership skills, and the line as a unit was one of the best in the NFL this year. The same ESPN article had the Broncos offensive line as the 8^th best pass blocking unit in the league and the 3^rd best run blocking unit in the league.

Lloyd Cushenberry is a free agent after this season, and he could be a cap casualty due to the Russell Wilson dead money, which would be sad since he finally developed into a quality starter after three seasons. George Paton at the end of the season said that they look at Alex Forsyth as a starter in the NFL and would be the most likely candidate to take over for Cushenberry if he isn’t returned. Forsyth was a seventh-round draft pick out of Oregon, and played last season with Bo Nix, which could become relevant after the draft in April! After next season Bolles and Quinn Meinerz are going to be due extensions or new contracts, we will see if the cap health permits it.

I hate offensive line bashing, because QB sacks are not the only gauge for success for them. And so many additional factors need to be evaluated to see if the sack was the lineman’s fault. Did they rush one more person than the O-line has people? Did the running back pass protect correctly? Did the QB slide the protection the correct direction? Was a stunt handed off correctly? Was there an open receiver the QB could have thrown to? Was the QB Breaking a clean pocket? Too many variables for casuals to constantly say “our line sucks, we need better players”. There were certainly plays this season where the line was the problem, don’t get me wrong. But the number of times this year where I am screaming at the TV “THROW THE DAMN FOOTBALL” after five seconds untouched was amazing.

Grade – A-

Wide Receivers

I don’t want anyone to be mad at me, it is hard to grade wide receivers when the quarterback is throwing for under 200-yards in 75% of his games. This is the main reason that Courtland Sutton wasn’t a pro bowler despite 10 touchdown catches on the season. This is why Jerry Jeudy is so often the scapegoat for the offense not being explosive. The wide receiver unit in Denver, is considered by many, and the expectation is that they are the strength of our team, we have spent the most money in the NFL on our wide receiver room… that being said, Tim Patrick spent his second year on IR, and didn’t play a single snap. Courtland Sutton played at a Pro Bowl level but was not recognized as such due to others having unbelievable receiving yard numbers. And Jerry Jeudy seems to have all the talent in the world but cannot put it all together. Some combination of drops, social media, post-game comments, immaturity, lack of targets, not toe tapping a touchdown, and mediocre production have many feeling he is a bust.

The Broncos utilized a few newcomers and younger guys for big plays, with Marvin Mims, Brandon Johnson, and Lil’Jordan Humphry having some of the biggest non-Courtland catches on the season. The Broncos had exactly one 100-yard game by a receiver this season, and it was Mims in the second week of the year. He caught a 63 and a 50-yard bomb, for 113 yards, and we never eclipsed the 100-yard mark again by a skill player. For a position group to account for as much of the salary cap as they do, you would hope you’re getting production out of the unit, and I think overall they were disappointing. The offense was never able to get wide receiver screens to be successful. The over the middle passing game was non-existent (On twitter, someone mentioned Russ had 18 middle of the field passes thrown this year… ~1 a game). The passing offense existed with either outside throws or scrambling deep shots, or three and outs, until Sean Payton pulled Russ as the starter. This isn’t to say those are the fault of the receivers, but the fact remains the entire WR room was disappointing besides Courtland, and there were still games and halves where he was completely ghost as well.

Grade – C

Tight Ends

I’m not sure what positive can be said about this group really, it is clear the team needs to improve at tight end moving into 2024, and you simply cannot rely on Greg Dulcich to stay healthy. He had two catches on the season and was injured for the rest of it. Adam Troutman lead the team in yards by a tight end, with 203 yards on 22 catches. Lucas Krull, Nate Adkins, and Chris Manhertz all had under 100-yards receiving for the season. This upcoming draft, I expect the Broncos to draft a Tight End, and I am hoping for Dallin Holker out of Colorado State University. But there are also some talented guys out there this year that could be gotten in the 3^rd or 4^th with Sinnott at Kstate, Stover at OSU, and Sanders at UT.

Historically, the Sean Payton offense is best when a tight end occupies the middle of the field and can threaten down field and in the seams. I believe that Dulcich when available is that threat, but you cannot go into a 3^rd straight season expecting him to stay healthy until he proves it. We had some pretty good run blocking tight ends, I would say that was the saving nature of this position group for the Broncos, making it not an F grade.

Grade – D

Running Backs

I have touched on this a little already, the running game was non-existent this year… we had a running back room by committee, with Javonte returning insanely fast from a torn ACL to play all but on game. We paid good money for Samaje Perine in the backup or change of pace role, and then pre-season sweetheart Jaleel McLaughlin was our wild card. The room seems to have talent, but we seemingly never busted big runs. We were 19^th in the league in rush yards per game. Our running backs scored five touchdowns on the season and had only seven rushing plays longer than 20 yards, fewer than one every two games… despite running the ball on 44.39% of our plays (8^th most in the NFL).

Running backs only lost one fumble on the year, which is a pretty great improvement from the Melvin Gordon years. Samaje Perine was a great 4^th quarter and 2-minute drill running back out of the back field and as a pass catcher. Jaleel seemed to be our big play and explosive player, accounting for four of the seven explosives. And Javonte seemed to get stuffed or 4-5 yards every carry, he didn’t seem nearly as game breaking as he did a year ago. He wasn’t hard to tackle, he wasn’t shedding tacklers left and right, he was just a mediocre back this year.

The thing that is most confusing about our lack of success in the running game, is that by both ESPN and PFF standards, our run blocking unit was upper echelon in the league. How are lineman winning their blocks at a high clip, but our backs can’t make anything special happen? Shoestring tackles, 4–5-yard gains, stacked tackle box because our passing offense wasn’t prolific at all. All things must have been true. We didn’t produce a single 100-yard rushing game by a single player this season. Zero. We ran the ball the 8^th most in the league, and couldn’t get a 100-yard back, that’s pathetic.

Our fullback Michael Burton received pro bowl votes; he had seven carries for four first downs. He should have had a go-ahead touchdown against the Patriots, but they called it back on an offsides. This again to me, adds to the confusion. A strong fullback, a strong offensive line, a group of capable running backs, but bad production…

Grade – D+

Quarterback

This is going to be tricky, since Russell Wilson was benched, and in my opinion deservedly so, we need to navigate these waters tactfully… If he was benched last season and we moved on, everyone would have been fine with it. He was terrible, the offense was terrible, we lost games, we couldn’t score or move the ball ever. Bench the quarterback, and everyone understands. Bench him this year after the 1-5 start, when everything was going badly, most people would have been like man he was playing terrible, need a change somehow, put in Stidham who we pay good money for as a backup and Payton hand-picked, and see if he can turn things around. But no, we didn’t do that either. We had to wait for him to get us back to a 7-8 record, with a playoff spot still on the line, have him string together a dramatically improved season statistically from a year ago, and then bench him so there was an open and reasonable debate to be had among fans…

I will argue with anyone that his stats are the most enigmatic thing on the planet. Russell Wilson throwing for 3k yards, 26 touchdowns, eight interceptions, while rushing for another 341 yards and three touchdowns… by most people’s grading system he had a good year. His TD:INT ration is impressive. He was contributing with his legs like he didn’t last season. He was not turning the ball over except on the final drives of the Texans and Jets games we could have won. He had four more comebacks/game winning drives which was towards the top of the league this year. So why was our coach so ready to bench him? Why are half the fans on his side and the other half of the fans feeling a deep sigh of relief that we don’t have to sit through games of soul sucking boring football for three quarters, just for the fourth to be exciting?

Here is why, Russell Wilson is a standup person, he is likable, and he has the heart and optimism of a champion. He’s a deeply religious guy, so he aligns with the value system of a certain demographic. He is a good leader, good speaker, and he never really has anything bad to say. He’s a great poster boy for what a quarterback should be. So, anything negative said about his play, must be prefaced with “but he is a great guy and everyone loves him”. That makes the conversation about sports, stats, the eye test, and everything that has to do with the player and not the man more challenging. You can simultaneously like Russell Wilson and hate how the offense looks when he is running it.

Sean Payton’s offense has proven over almost two decades, to be one of the best in the league. It is designed around identifying a defense, timing routes, screens, deep to intermediate shots to tight ends, unlocking big-bodied receivers on in-breaking routes for RAC, and a ‘joker’ player typically out of the backfield that can attack the short and intermediate middle of the field with big RAC and create mismatches. The core of this issue is that Russ’s biggest weakness his entire career has been middle of the field shots. This is exemplified by the fact he only threw 18 intermediate balls in the middle of the field this season. He simply either cannot, or is unwilling to take the risk, to place a ball over linebackers and in front of the safeties. The second part of this issue is that when defenses can predict you’re not throwing over the middle, their safeties can play over the outsides and force your WRs into the middle of the field where we know you’re not going to throw it or stack the box so that running and play action aren’t possible plays.

You must be able to attack all areas of the field to keep a defense honest, that unlocks the running game, and from there you unlock the play action pass. To allow for the Russ to tap into his strengths, he must first show the defense that he can beat them all over the field. Since he cannot, the offense was predictable and resulted in tons of 3-and-outs. Running the ball against a stacked box, throwing screens on 2^nd or 3^rd down to try and pick up yards, and some designed play that Russ could break the pocket and look for one of his players downfield, but completely on his own time, not the design of the offense. Another component that made the QB and scheme incompatible, is that Russ made his money on off-schedule plays, scrambling, and breaking the pocket. This play style, for a coach whose offense is technical, timing-based, and has an answer for most defenses, results in frustration with wide open receivers running down the field, receivers sitting in holes waiting for a ball to never come, tight ends in the seam with zero percent chance of a deep shot.

Since our offensive success was predicated on off-schedule deep shots, this leads to the most inconsistent offense possible. Russ must break the pocket and toss a moon ball 60-yards down field for the offense to move at all. And since he does this 5-6 times a game, a few of them are successful and exciting, that means we are only scoring on possessions when those deep shots hit, or if the defense or special teams get the offense good field position. This is counterintuitive for a coach who believes his system can move into field goal position every possession. This is why we ran the ball so often, because Payton believed we had a better chance at being a more consistent offense if our running game could at least pick up a few first downs. Same with the screen game, low chance of failure plays, that don’t require any reads, but putting the ball into the hands of playmakers that are more predictable than Russ.

All of this to say, Russ has proven he can be successful, but he needs a zero-ego defensive coach, and an OC that is willing to mold an offense around him. He needs an offensive line that blocks simultaneously for a pocket and for off-schedule plays which is near impossible. He needs a running game that can be successful against a stacked box. And he needs a defense and special teams that can flip the field for him a few times a game. This was exactly what he had in 2013 with the legion of boom and Marshawn Lynch, but that exact formula is easier said than done.

He is a good QB in a perfect situation, he throws a world class deep ball that is rarely intercepted, which seems so impossible. He can scramble and make plays with his feet. He has the intangibles, like leadership and optimism, people seem to like him as a person… but he is missing parts of his game that make being his OC easy, predictable, or consistent, which is infuriating as a coach I assume. I can’t remember which YouTube show I was watching, maybe Colin Cowherd, but one of those shows said that the all-time great QBs like Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, these guys got their OCs head coaching jobs… but OCs in Seattle get fired. Head Coaches and OCs in Denver are getting fired… he isn’t a coach friendly player. He plays backyard football and hits a few deep shots a game to score 2-3 touchdowns a week, and on good games connects on more deep shots, on bad games fewer. He has a good TD:INT ratio because he doesn’t throw over the middle unless he’s forced too, and he is comfortable taking sacks instead of forcing something.

The way he plays, he makes himself look good and everyone else look bad somehow, that’s the best way to put it. Besides Courtland Sutton, who moved mountains to try and be successful this season, everyone else on the offense had a bad year and was not thrilled with how the offense played. He took 45 sacks in 15 weeks for -258 yards. Bottom 10 in the NFL in Pass yards. Bottom five in the league in total first downs. Bottom seven in the league in 1^st down percentage.

Stidham didn’t look elite by any stretch, but the offense moved, and I honestly think that is what Sean Payton was trying to prove. If you throw the balls and give players a chance at RAC, you will be consistent instead of incompletes, sacks, and running the ball when things get hairy. Take what the defense gives you. Jarrett Stidham is just simply a backup QB, and that’s what we saw. A backup QB doing what the coach told him and he moved the ball, got first downs, and never went three and out. If you combine Russ’s ability to make off-schedule plays, and Sean Payton’s ability to scheme guys open and get the ball in space you should get success, but Russ cannot run the schemed plays and chooses to try and make everything off-schedule instead of taking the easy shot and moving the ball.

Grade – C-

Looking Forward

• We have a 1^st round pick this season, in a quarterback heavy draft that could see six QBs go in the first round (Williams, Maye, Daniels, Nix, Penix, McCarthy)
• Goals for next year need to include beating the Raiders, getting over 500, and making the playoffs.
• There could be some massive changes this offseason, with the looming dead cap hit of moving on from Russ, everyone knows it, just need to brace for impact.
• Ill do a full season review for the Defense and special teams next.

ESPN Article Referenced – https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38356170/2023-nfl-pass-rush-run-stop-blocking-win-rate-rankings-top-players-teams

About Post Author

Aaron Hubert

Major Colorado sports fan who was once, for an entire year, a paid writer covering the entire Colorado sports scene. I grew up in Fort Collins, Colorado, a huge fan of all the professional sports Colorado had to offer. I played Football and Basketball in High School. I attended Colorado State University for undergrad, earning my degree in Business with a concentration in Computer Information Systems. I work as a professional Product Manager in the software development space for Fanatics.com the sports apparel company. I am a Fantasy Football and Fantasy Hockey participant, not sure if that will ever be worked into these writings, but keeping my option open! I really enjoy the process of being a huge fan of sports, being a passionate Colorado sports advocate, and using social media and writing to express my beliefs and opinions about sports.

aaronh92@hotmail.com

http://www.centennial-sports.com

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