Denver Broncos 2024 Draft Strategies
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The Combine and Pro Days haven’t happened yet, noted. Mocking a draft this early is silly, but the exercise is more around what are the options and different strategies the Broncos could employ moving into the 2024 NFL draft. We need a QB of the future, right? Maybe? Can we get one of the top three guys at pick 12? Is there a world where you risk another late first or early second round pick on a guy like Bo Nix or Michael Penix?
How do we manage the salary cap if we move on from Russell Wilson? What happens if we keep Russ for one more year to save about $35mil in dead cap hit? Is there a world where Jarrett Stidham is our starting quarterback in 2024, and we take a legit run at tanking for Arch Manning? Eating all of Russ’s $85mil cap hit in 2024 and trading/cutting players to stack the deck with draft picks and target 2025 as our return to dominance? All of these conversations are being considered by Sean Payton, George Paton and the Walton/Penner ownership group today and as we move toward the draft and Free Agency periods
I thought it would be fun to look the draft through each of those lenses above and generate, what I consider, viable draft outcomes. I view the Broncos draft needs as such: starting caliber Tight End, developmental wide receiver, second string safety, high upside project cornerback, a running back that can challenge for carries, center to replace Cushenberry III, competitive defensive end or d-lineman, developmental inside linebacker, obviously a solution to the quarterback problem.
BPA
Best Player Available, regardless of position. If one of those Offensive Tackles is there, we grab them. If Brock Bowers is there, he’s ours. If Marvin Harrison Jr or Malik Nabers falls to us, grab them. This is the best way to add talent to a team and ignore the people who say you should draft positions of need. If a BPA is a position of need, PERFECT, but not a requirement. I think this strategy is healthy for this team, that I would argue lacks top tier talent in a lot of positions, which is leading to fans believing this team is better than it rightfully is on paper. Many fans believe that we have a lot of starters across the entire team that would be backup players on the best teams in the league and I think a valid argument could be made there.
Blue-chip players as they are called, should be impossible to ignore and impact every single game. I think of players like Pat Surtain, Justin Simmons, and Quinn Meinerz. Guys that jump off the screen when they are locked in, they are the best in the league at what they do. But then you have fake blue-chip players that are flashy and skilled but inconsistent at best. I’m thinking of guys like Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Nik Bonito, and Josey Jewel. These are guys that can have elite games, but they are not consistent. They disappear at times. This isn’t a negative, I’m not trying to devalue their impact, but I’m just saying the ability to need to be accounted for every single play is not there for these guys. You can remove them from the game with scheme or play design.
Adding best player available this draft pick could be combined with a culling of the roster to get rid of players’ salaries to start fresh in 2025. Big dollar guys eligible to be waived, in my opinion, are DJ Jones, Tim Patrick, Samaje Perine, and maybe someone like Chris Manhertz. Those four players save the Broncos ~27million in cap hit next year, which could go a long way in offsetting the Russell Wilson $85mil in dead cap hit, or spread the hit over 2024 and 2025. Need to factor in the Randy Gregory, Brandon McManus, Frank Clark, and Montrell Washington dead cap hits next season for ~$9.7mil. We have seen guys like Courtland Sutton, Garret Bolles and Josey Jewell make comments to suggest they might not be back next season either. The Broncos offseason is going to be a rollercoaster for sure.
Staying put at pick 12, Brock Bowers fell to me. An impact, blue chip weapon in both the running game and the passing game. He cannot be ignored, and he stretches the field vertically and can read defenses and sit in the gaps of a zone defense. Without trading back, we do not have a second-round selection, so you sit at 81 hoping a player falls, in this case a top 50 prospect and one time five-star recruit defensive lineman Leonard Taylor fell to me. From there I traded back a few times and was happy to land a Georgia product at safety, Jerry Rice’s Son, and some developmental pieces at positions of need.
I didn’t love that I took both Sam Hartman and Austin Reed, but one of my trade backs netted me the Mr. Irrelevant pick, and I thought QB here is the best choice. In this scenario, Russell Wilson is not on the team, and we need a backup QB. You now have two rookies that are duking it out to be the backup and they were late round selections anyway. Likely losing both Lloyd Cushenberry III and Josey Jewell as cap casualties, I got some developmental guys to address those departures late in the draft.
Quarterback No Matter What
This is the school of thought that there are six possible 1st round quarterbacks in this draft, and one of them is going to fall to pick 12. You take the best of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr or JJ McCarthy at pick 12 and you don’t think twice about it. Maybe they must sit and learn behind a vet like Jarrett Stidham for a handful of games and they aren’t the most polished player in the league, but you ride or die with whichever QB falls to pick 12. This has its pros and cons, for example passing on sure thing players like Bowers or Nabers to reach for a QB after the top 3-4 guys are picked ahead of you.
This was the draft I hated the most, this one felt bad to me. If you’re sticking at pick number 12, I feel like it must be to get a top ten talent, let the people in front of you reach for quarterbacks, even ones ranked towards the bottom of the first round. I really like what I see from Penix Jr but you can’t discount his injury history, and if that rears its ugly head professionally, this was worse than a draft bust, it was a player with a history we chose to ignore. If it works out, nobody will say a single thing, but there are red flags and blue-chip players like Kool-Aid McKinstry, Rome Odunze, JC Latham and Jared Verse were on the board still. I think this strategy shows the worst decision making, you either move up to get the guy you love or trade back to get the guy that should be there at the end of the 1st round, don’t reach by 20 picks for a high risk high reward QB graded as a late day one early day two pick.
Trade Up for YOUR Guy
This is the highest risk highest reward move. If you’re successful like the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, Lions and Jared Goff, or the Ravens with Lamar Jackson, then bravo. But there are just as many major first round trade-up fails that make a GM look silly. What does a trade package to Chicago for the number one pick look like? Would they trade that pick to the highest bidder for the chance to take Caleb Williams? Do the Broncos even have the caliber of picks to make that move, especially without a second-round selection this year?
I tried using the trade simulator with the Bears for the #1 overall pick, and sending them every selection we have in the 2023 draft and every future pick in the 2024 draft, the trade was still declined… Like I said above, I’m not sure the Broncos have the caliber of draft capital to our name right now to move up from #12 to #1 overall. I could see the team making some trades with players like Justin Simmons, Courtland Sutton, Garret Bolles or other veterans that have been on the team a long time to acquire draft capital, but as it stands right now this might not even be an option. Maybe draft picks and players could get the job done? Something like #12, #81, next year’s 1st and 2nd, and then a player like Justin Simmons or Courtland Sutton? Not sure that moves the needle.
I let the draft play out, and I was able to trade up with the New York Giants and get Jayden Daniels at pick #6. This is a pick to love, since Sean Payton has connections to New Orleans and Daniels went to LSU. This pick did cost us two draft picks in the current draft, as well as next years first round pick. Again, a really expensive six positions to move up, but if Daniels is the guy, it’s worth it. If he doesn’t appear to have it, we are another year in the hole without a first round pick. I was able to get a talented linebacker, pass catching safety-net running back out of TCU, a center in case Alex Forsyth isn’t the guy to start next season, and Mo Kamara an edge rusher from CSU!
This draft makes my stomachache, because if Daniels is a bust, we are in a hole again and this time in a talent vacuum. Trading for (so much draft and player capital) Russell Wilson and giving him a massive contract before playing a down. Letting go of players because of Russ’s contract and the dead cap problems of moving on from him. Trading high draft picks for a head coach. And then trading draft picks to move up and take Jayden Daniels. If this doesn’t pan out, the Broncos will literally be the worst team in the league for 2024 and maybe 2025, recovering from the impact of this string of bad decisions. The good news, if something like this is done and doesn’t pan out, I couldn’t see a single reason George Paton keeps his job, and the Broncos are back to square one and have zero choice but to rebuild. And if Daniels pans out, we have a square two to build off.
Trade Back for Picks and a QB
If George Paton has shown us anything, it is that he likes to be a draft day mover. He does not have a problem moving up or down, and he will go get his guy or acquire draft capital if a player he doesn’t love is not available. At pick 12 in this run of the simulation Drake Maye, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels were all selected ahead of the pick, which left me an opportunity to trade back to pick 17 with the Jaguars and acquire some additional picks in the second round. Then when pick 17 came around, we were offered another opportunity to trade back to pick 32, where we also acquired some additional picks. This is my favorite strategy, because I believe the Broncos are too far away from competing for a super bowl and we have too many holes in the current roster, especially with the potential players being let go this off-season. Getting Michael Penix Jr at pick 32 and receiving four extra day two picks seems like a perfect draft for the Broncos.
Jer’Zhan Newton fell in this draft which doesn’t seem likely, but the #17 overall ranked player taken at pick 48 at a position of need was huge. One of the other picks acquired in the trade back was the last selection in the second round where I was able to snag Michael Penix Jr’s favorite target in college, receiver Ja’Lynn Polk. If players like Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick aren’t on the team next year for cap reasons, a big bodied athletic WR will be needed next to Jerry Jeudy, Marvin Mims and Greg Dulcich. I rounded out the draft with a talented third round developmental cornerback and a long-term project at linebacker to play a backup and special teams’ role. Then I was able to snag some Colorado talent in TE Dallin Holker and S Trey Taylor our of Colorado State and Air Force respectively. This draft I believe played out great for the types of players needed, the positions of need, the opportunities to trade back and still get the guys we wanted, while also addressing some of the looming issues with the current roster.
What strategy do you hope the Broncos pursue?
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