Nuggets vs Warriors Preview
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The Denver Nuggets clinched the 6th seed on game 81 of the 2022 season while the Warriors were battling with the Mavericks for the third seed until the last minute of their final games of the year. With the Warriors winning their final five games, they secured the third seed, and cemented the 2013 first-round playoff rematch of the Nuggets vs the Warriors. The Nuggets franchise in 2013 was shocked in the first round by the then upstart sixth seed Warriors with a young Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. Little did anyone know that that post season would mark the start of the Warriors almost decade long dominance, as that off-season they would recruit Andre Igoudala off the Nuggets roster to join their squad and would make an insane five out of the next six NBA finals, winning three championships in the coming years.
I remember telling myself, many times, during that playoff series, “there was no way the Warriors could keep shooting like this”, and that they would start missing eventually… But turns out, almost a decade later, Steph and Klay are going to go down as two of the best three-point shooters of all time and injury was the only thing that has stopped either of them these last 5ish years.
Nuggets 2012-13 Aftermath
The Nuggets franchise made some bold decisions after that playoff loss, firing Coach of the Year winner George Karl, after winning 57 games the previous season, despite no real superstars and not a single All-Star player. Superstar General Manager Masai Ujiri would leave the franchise for the Toronto Raptors, where he eventually won an NBA Championship, which would make way for now superstar GM Tim Connelly. Despite the new great young GM, the franchise would then turn to the darkest two seasons of my 20-year Nuggets fandom, during the Brian Shaw head coaching years, that would see the players turn on a coach and start a literal mutiny against the new regime.
In the two Brian Shaw seasons, the Nuggets would be more than 10 games under .500, miss the playoffs, and be ranked toward the bottom in both offensive rating as well as defensive rating, and the product on the floor was awful. Players like Ty Lawson, Wilson Chandler, Arron Aflalo and Kenneth Faried would all stand against their coach, and speak out against him. After the Brian Shaw experiment, the Nuggets would Hire Michael Malone, Draft Nikola Jokic and start their rebuild toward the team we see today.
Present Day – 2022 Injuries
Now, we have Nikola Jokic’s Nuggets versus Steph Curry’s Warriors in a battle of two-time MVPs (most likely after Nikola secures this year’s award, for the back-to-back), to hopefully pose as the Nuggets catapult into dynasty mode for the next five years! Only thing standing in the way? Health problems. Both squads have had some serious health issues all season, Nuggets fans know about the Jamal Murray and MPJ sagas, and Warriors fans all season have heard about James Wiseman, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Steph Curry all battling ailments. This 2022 matchup seems to be a “who fields the healthiest team” type matchup.
Jamal Murray has been medically cleared to play basketball, his coaches and Tim Connelly are all aligned that Jamal is going to return when he’s mentally and physically ready. There have been many articles out there that say don’t expect him this post season, because things aren’t trending that way, and rushing him back to play could jeopardize his future, since he is only 25 years old. MPJ is basically in the same boat.
It seemed MPJ was recovered from his surgery, was cleared for shoot arounds and small non-contact practice, was sent to the G-League to practice with the Grand Rapids Gold… then silence fell. We haven’t heard anything about his return. Basically, Nuggets fans are waiting on bated breath to see if we have a contender roster with our superstars returning like Gandolf at the battle of Helms Deep, or if we must see what magic Nikola Jokic can do to absolutely will the Nuggets to another first-round playoff victory on the tired legs of back-to-back MVP effort.
Matchup
I don’t think the Warriors have a player that can match up well with Nikola and that is expressed by his 28-16-9 stat line in four games versus the Warriors this season. I think the Warriors typically try to play the “make someone else beat them” strategy, which should work wonders against the Nuggets with the serious inconsistency from the supporting cast. However, the Nuggets went 3-1 vs the Warriors in 2022 winning both road games and the first three games of the season against the rival.
One thing that has been consistent for the Nuggets outside of Nikola Jokic this year, is that nobody else will be consistent. In all four Nuggets games against the Warriors, the second-best scorer for the Nuggets was a different player in each game. Will Barton, Bryn Forbes, Jeff Green, and Monte Morris all had decent games; most memorably was Monte Morris game winner on the road before the All-Star break.
The Warriors are expected to be without Steph Curry for game one, which is a nice gift for the Nuggets. They must capitalize and steal a road game against the team expected to win the series. Nikola Jokic has never lost in the first round of the playoffs, including four out of the seven series he has played going to game seven. I have a really hard time counting the Nuggets out, because I’ve seen playoff Jokic, and I believe he is an X-factor. Can his supporting cast hit the shots he creates for them? Can they play efficient basketball on offense and defend the three-point line on defense? That’s been a struggle at times this season.
Keys to the Series
The last few months, the Nuggets have been atrocious against the three-point defense and have been unable to defend guards outside the three-point line. That doesn’t even mean that they have struggled getting deep shots taken and made, they have an extremely difficult time staying in front of guards allowing them to get to the rim. They have a hard time contesting threes without fouling. They have a hard time with pick and roll defense at the top of the three-point arch. They struggle with switching and giving up uncontested threes. This doesn’t bode well for the Nuggets versus the three-point monster that is the Golden State Warriors.
For the Nuggets to win this series, Nikola must be unstoppable. They must figure out how to stop the Warriors from decimating them from outside the arch. They must have someone blossom as the second threat, be it Aaron Gordon, Monte Morris, Will Barton, Bones Hyland, someone else must be the hot hand every night because Jokic cannot do it by himself. Finally, the Nuggets bench must be better than the Warriors, the Nuggets had the 13th ranked scoring bench in the NBA and the Warriors had the 11th best scoring bench in the league, the Nuggets should be able to steal a game or two with the bench staying even or better than the Warriors on a nightly basis.
The Nuggets Bench Unit played the 11th most minutes in the league, but that number is skewed because they had bench players starting most of the season. I think the Warriors must be in the same boat because their bench has the second most minutes in the NBA. I think both starting units are dominant, and the bench unit’s ability to play above the opponent is what will ultimately determine this series. I think the Nuggets bench has dramatically stabilized since bringing in Boogie Cousins, pairing him with Bones Hyland, and adding JaMycal Green as another tough enforcer on the second unit.
Predictions
With my Homer glasses on, that the Nuggets can win in seven games. There is some contingency here on the “others”, as TNT analysts like to put it, being better than they have been all season, which feels like too much hopium. If I put my realism glasses on, the Warriors are more likely to get healthy, and when healthy they have a core that has won three NBA championships in the last seven years. I have faith in Nikola making this a series, I don’t believe it will be a stomp by the Warriors, and I honestly think the Nuggets have a chance, but my prediction is Warriors in 7.
This hurts my heart to say, but I think back-to-back MVP campaigns by Nikola Jokic will be wasted because of his teammates inability to stay or get healthy. With a healthy roster, I believe the Nuggets take this series in six games, confidently. But they aren’t healthy, likely won’t get healthy in the next five days, and as a result we will have our fourth and fifth best players taking 15 shots a night against the Warriors Dynasty with the best shooter in NBA history. The Nuggets returning Jamal or MPJ for this series would also be a HUGE risk, because they haven’t played basketball in a long time, and just throwing them into a playoff atmosphere for their first game action of the season would be a bad decision, not to mention the team chemistry that would be dramatically impacted.
I pray that I’m wrong, believe me, I will gladly eat all the crow, take all the retweets, and bad mouthing on the posts for this article. Happily. If the Nuggets win this series, I’ll create an “I was wrong” article. I don’t want to be right. But I think Nikola is too tired, Malone has said it since the All-Star break. He hasn’t shot the three ball well in over a month, because of all the miles on his legs. Nikola has a playoff second gear, he elevates his play when the post-season comes, but I just fear the supporting cast isn’t good enough around him.
One optimistic outcome of leaving the playoffs early, Nikola gets a longer off-season to rest. He can chase the three-peat MVP with a healthy roster in 2023. The Nuggets Championship roster will be healthy and rested for their legit run in 2023. 28-year-old Nikola Jokic, 26-year-old Jamal Murray, and a 24-year-old Michael Porter Jr.
Go Nuggets Prove me wrong!
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