Denver Broncos Offensive Comparison
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The Denver Broncos managed to acquire Russell Wilson this offseason, in a blockbuster trade with the Seattle Seahawks that included sending four draft picks and three starting caliber players in exchange. So, when we look at the talent of the 2022 Broncos offense, how does it stack up compared to Wilson’s previous offenses, skill position, running back, and offensive line groups? How has the team that’s been billed a contender, compare to Russell Wilson’s two other Super Bowl caliber teams?
In the 2013 season and the 2014 season, both years Russell Wilson made the Super Bowl, those will be the rosters that I will use for most comparisons, along with last season’s DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett core.
Running Game
The 2013-2014 Seahawks boasted a prime Marshawn Lynch, who rushed for about 1250 yards and 12.5 touchdowns average, in both seasons. This caliber season is a great goal for Javonte Williams. The Broncos second year back, out of North Carolina, lead the league in broken tackles despite being the second string back and splitting carries 50/50 all season with Melvin Gordon. Seeing as how Marshawn Lynch was one of the best tackle-breaking backs in the recent NFL past, Javonte Williams will have a huge opportunity to follow in his footsteps and be a serious monster out of the backfield.
I think that with Melvin Gordon no longer in a Bronco’s jersey, the bell-cow tag will be placed squarely on Javonte Williams shoulders. The nice thing about having Russell Wilson is that Williams should not have to carry the ball 30 times a game like the 2021 season. He should get about 15-25 carries a game, with a few changes of pace, gadget, and specialty plays designed for other backs. Saying that Javonte is going to be better than prime Marshawn Lynch feels like a stretch, but he did rush for 900 yards his rookie year, on 203 carries, and proved he was a dependable back that was responsible with the football.
I will say that the expectation for Javonte to have a season comparable to Lynch’s doesn’t feel tongue in cheek or disrespectful, the fans have high hopes and the fact that the Broncos didn’t return Melvin Gordon immediately and haven’t brought in any other backs shows that the team believes in Williams as well. The verdict is still out, but the hype and talent seem to be there for Javonte, only time will tell if he will be better, similar, or worse than what Russell Wilson had out of the backfield his first three seasons in the NFL.
Wide Receivers
Broncos Core – Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler, Kendall Hinton
2013 Seahawks – Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, Jermain Kearse
2014 Seahawks – Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Paul Richardson
2021 Seahawks – DK Metcalk, Tyler Lockett, Freddie Swaine
Overview, I think the Superbowl teams the offense was more of a hardnose traditional running offense complimented by a strong defense. They had the legion of boom, they had Marshawn lynch, they had some nasty offensive lineman, with Bobby Wagoner and a fierce pass rush. But the reality is that they didn’t have a single 1000-yard receiver, Russell Wilson didn’t throw for an absurd number of yards, and the weapons weren’t spectacular. Some good players who went on to have decent careers, but none of the receivers in 2013-14 were ever mentioned as top talents in the league.
That, however, was not the case last year, Russell’s top two weapons were some of the bests in the NFL, then the gap between the top two and the rest of the receiving core was a sheer cliff. DK Metcalf is one of the most insane athletes in the NFL, he’s strong, fast, big, and can jump out of the building while also being a good route runner. Russell and Tyler Lockett have some of the best chemistry in the league between a receiver and quarterback, and the always seem to be in sync on deep shots and playing against zone defenses.
I think this year’s Broncos weapons will be somewhere between two top 20 receivers in the league, and a handful of decent receivers that can get the job done. They have a great plethora of receivers with different skill sets that are all complimentary and we return the speed demon KJ Hamler to the mix, just in time to get a QB that can hit him in stride.
Courtland Sutton has already been a pro-bowler in his career, he’s had a serious injury and rebounded amazingly, and he’s ready to put together a second pro-bowl campaign and burst back onto the national stage. I think that he will be a perfect deep ball threat when left in single coverage and will continue to be a good possession receiver that gives Russell a big body to target. Courtland is really a jack of all trades, he catches the deep ball and jump ball as good as anyone in the NFL and he’s a perfect combination of speed, size, and spectacular catchability.
Tim Patrick is one of the most dependable 3rd down receivers in the NFL, he does a perfect job of getting open, being a quarterback friendly target, securing nearly every catch, and picking up first downs in bulk. He will not be on anyone’s radar as a top receiver in the league, but he will be an impact player in Denver with Wilson. Patrick is one of the most underrated players in the NFL, but us Broncos fans know exactly the kind of player that he is.
Jerry Jeudy, the verdict is out on him in my mind. I think that what he is capable of is a top 10 receiver in the NFL, but what he’s shown on film is an enigma to me. Advanced metrics say he’s got the most separation between defenders in the NFL the last two seasons. He’s also dropped the ball at a rate that, as a fan, becomes hard to not get mad at. He runs some of the nastiest routes in the league, constantly dropping and shaking his defender with his movements, but somehow has only three touchdowns in two seasons and has an average yards per game stat of 50.9 in his career so far. I think that he hasn’t exactly been put in a position to succeed with Pat Shurmur’s offense and the quarterbacks that the Broncos have fielded the last two seasons, but Jerry Jeudy has an opportunity to go out there and be a game wreaker this season.
I can only imagine that Jerry is as frustrated with his drops and production as the fans are, but now he has a top 10 quarterback in the league, a brand-new offensive coordinator, whom I cannot imagine being as inept as Shurmur, and a healthy season to showcase his talents. It’s difficult to put any expectation on him outside of having the best year of his career which could look like 1000-yards and more than 3 touchdowns. I think production like that would be fine, but a top-15 pick receiver, I’d like to see some absolute Rockstar numbers. I think the bar and expectations for Jerry this season should be the 1400-yard and 5-8 touchdown mark.
Finally, KJ Hamler is back from a severe knee injury and alongside Jerry Jeudy, he has a ton to prove. He must be able to stay healthy. He must show that he catches those deep balls that hit him in the hands at a higher rate than 50%. It is imperative that he plays all 17 games, so that this offense can thrive with all its weapons available. KJ is an absolute Rockstar when healthy, his presence alone forces defenses to show him respect or he will be a problem. He has big games under his belt, he has game winning catches on his resume, he is a game breaker with his speed and deep threat ability. Russell Wilson must be able to be able to rely on his hands and his health before he is a serious threat though.
I think the Broncos wide receivers are deeper and more versatile than any receiver group Wilson has had in the past, and I think they have some players that have Pro-Bowl potential. This year’s skill position players have the most pressure to elevate their game to make this a Super Bowl caliber roster.
Tight Ends
I was somewhat shocked to see how consistent tight end usage was on the Russell Wilson lead teams, and then it became almost amazingly transparent that the Broncos MUST secure a tight end in the early portion of the 2022 NFL Draft. I love Albert Okwuegbunham, I think he has the same exact issue as KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy above, he must be healthy, and he must prove that he will catch those balls that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing him miss. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Broncos select Colorado State tight end Trey McBride at pick 64 if he is still around come that selection, and as a CSU alumni would be first in line for the McBride Broncos jersey.
Albert O was only credited with two drops last season, but both were potentially game changing plays for touchdowns or huge third down conversions. I think generally the stats guys are more lenient on what constitutes a stat sheet drop, because I can think of three balls that I expect my tight end to come down with that he didn’t. If Albert can stay healthy (played 18/33 possible games in 2 seasons) and be an every-down starting caliber tight end, then I think he has the skill to be a top 5 tight end in the NFL. I think depending on his health when he has shown to be fragile, even as a second stringer, is too risky a move to not at least invest a draft pick into.
Russ has had the pleasure of elevating tight ends; Zach Miller, Luke Wilson, Jimmy Graham, Nick Vannett, Will Dissley, Greg Olson, and Gerald Everett all to the top 5 receiving targets, on their respective rosters, in his Seahawks career. I think that Albert O will see a bunch of balls come his way, and if he stays healthy has the size, speed, and ability to be a Jimmy Graham type receiving threat that can be near the top of the league. That being said, please draft Trey McBride for the depth and keeping Colorado Talent local!
Offensive Line
The seahawks have historically had bad offensive lines. In the last three seasons Russell Wilson has been running for his life to keep possessions alive. I think it is a no-brainer that the Broncos 2022 offensive line is going to be one of, if not the, best lines that Wilson has played behind. I think fan’s typically give offensive lineman the most shit for things that are out of their power in the NFL.
This Broncos offensive line is full of some absolute maulers. They will be one of the best run blocking lines in the NFL. They have one of the best left tackles in the NFL in Garrett Bolles. They have young hungry guys in Dalton Risner, Lloyd Cushenberry III, Graham Glasgow, and now Billy Turner at right tackle. There is a good chance that three of those guys are battling for their jobs as Quinn Meinerz and Netane Muti are both highly talented second-string guards/centers that would love to come in and be the starters in Denver.
Competition at a position that ranked near the middle of the pack. With Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater under center, will elevate the ranking of the unit overall. PFF had the Broncos Oline ranked as the 19th line in the league at the end of the season, with Quinn and Risner both ranking as the worst of the lot. They added Billy Turner, who was the best graded O-lineman on the Packers line, which ranked 15th overall. Graham Glasgow also returns, and he is a strong lineman that needs to stay healthy. I think that when healthy, with competent quarterbacking, this unit will show to be a top 10 line in the league.
Wilsons best ranked offensive line of his career was in 2020, where they were the 16 ranked pass blocking line in the NFL. I think the Broncos will do a better job than any unit he’s been “protected” by in his career.
Overall
Running Backs – Marshawn better but Javonte has the skill to be equal
Receivers – Significantly better than his worst, deeper than his best receiver cores.
Tight Ends – Talent is there, but health concerns makes me hope they draft Trey McBride
Offensive Line – Will be better than any line Russell Wilson has played behind.
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