Does Carmelo Anthony Make Sense for the Nuggets?
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Over the last 48-hours, personally, I’ve see more than a handful of honest new sources reporting that the Denver Nuggets are rumored to be interested in bringing Carmelo Anthony back as a rotational player for a championship hopeful roster. Below are just a few of the posts from Legion Hoops, Basketball Forever, and the NBA Buzz Twitter feed. I’m going to look into if this signing make sense for the Nuggets from a salary cap, narrative, roster spot, and contribution perspective. The Nuggets haven’t wanted to touch Carmelo with a 10-foot pole since he scored the organization in the middle of the 2010-11 season, including his time after the New York Knicks where he bounced around to the Thunder, Trailblazers, Rockets and Lakers. So why does it make sense right now? Does it make sense right now?
Contract and Roster Fit
The Nuggets are currently in a pretty bad cap situation, but the reality is that they have three max contract players in Jokic, Murray and Porter Jr and another big contract in Aaron Gordon, and are trying to surround their 2x MVP with a legit contender roster and role players. Spotrac shows the Nuggets as currently sitting -$52 million in available cap space implying they are significantly over the cap, paying almost $17 million in luxury tax, and most likely aren’t in a position to take on an additional contract.
That being said, Carmelo Anthony, over the last four seasons, has had an average contract worth approximately $2.3-$2.6 million dollars, which is equivalent to what Vlatko Cancar is making currently or half of Ishmael Smiths current contract. The Nuggets current roster only has Michael Porter Jr and Vlatko Cancar as designated Small Forwards, and could definitely use more depth at this position. They are stacked at Guard with Murray, KCP, Brown, Braun, Payton Watson and Davon Reed. I could see a world where they waive Ish Smith, sign Carmelo Anthony and save ~$2.5 million in cap space, while shoring up a depth weakness.
I think another option, and decision that could also be being weighed, would be the possibility of bringing PJ Dozier back, who was slotted in as being a 6th man type player for this roster last season, before tearing his ACL. He is currently recovering from his injury and is an NBA Free Agent that could come in for a good contract and already has chemistry with the team.
Does Carmelo Anthony make sense? This is currently a roster that does not lack scoring, and has been rebuilt this offseason to add defenders and scrappy players like KCP, Christain Braun, Bruce Brown and Deandre Jordan. Carmelo is not historically known as a scrappy team player, and this could really go against the culture the team is trying to build right now, unless Anthony buys in and sells out.
Carmelo is still, to this day, one of the best scorers in league history, and he has shown he’s capable of being a 40% knock down three point shooter, while in Portland. A bench unit of Bones Hyland, Bruce Brown Jr, Jeff Green, Carmelo Anthony and Zeke Nnaji could actually be electric, and could go on some serious runs. Depth and role players like Davon Reed, Vlatko Cancar, Christian Braun, Payton Watson and Deandre Jordan would make up the specialty and deep bench guys who are still remarkably talented. I could see this move happening from a roster spot and contract perspective with Ish Smith being the cap casualty.
The Narrative
Carmelo Anthony would be back where it all started, where he was drafted number three overall, where he had his most career success, built his brand, and made a Western Conference Finals, duking it out with Kobe Bean Bryant and the eventual 2009-10 NBA Champion Lakers. The Nuggets would ultimately fall in six games versus the Lakers, but ill never forget the terrible inbounds passes: game one from Anthony Carter, down two points with 30 seconds left in a game they ultimately lost by 3 and from Kenyon Martin down two with 37 seconds left in game three of a 1-1 series… Trevor Ariza both times sealed the game getting inbounds steals in clutch moments off bad passes. That being said, Carmelo absolutely sold out this series and went toe to toe with the great Kobe.
Carmelo back in Denver, as a role player, trying to earn his first NBA championship on the team that drafted him, alongside a very capable championship roster. He wouldn’t be the face of the franchise, but it would be poetic that an all-time great would come back to his old stomping grounds, where he helped change the culture, and win his only championship so he could ride off into the sunset and avoid the Charles Barkley curse of being amazing but ultimately never winning an NBA championship. The Narrative writes itself and I can already hear every single nationally televised game repeating the same phrases about how cool this is.
Let Carmelo come back to Denver like Lebron going back to Cleveland, and let the power of story telling and narrative be on the Nuggets side this coming season. It is no secret that people love story telling and legends being created, the legend of Carmelo Anthony ultimately falls short without a championship, he’s a great scorer, was an NCAA champion and had an amazing Olympic career, he could score every which way, but could never get a ring. Change the narrative in Denver by helping win the franchise’s first ever NBA championship along the way.
I am all for the power of narrative, think of Peyton Manning’s last hoorah in Denver. Think of Ray Lewis’s send off season in Baltimore, in 2012. Jordan finally getting past the bad boy Pistons. The legend of Magic Johnson vs Larry Bird. The 2013 San Antonio Spurs upsetting the Heat’les big three of LBJ, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade… Narrative makes championships memorable and provides a message bigger than basketball that can unite a team and provide a larger mission. The Nuggets could capture that narrative this season by bringing Carmelo back.
Contribution
Carmelo Anthony fits in Denver from a salary cap stand point, he plays a position of need for the current roster, he does not exactly fit the bill as a scrappy defender or team first player, but he is a clutch and consistent scorer that shoots the deep ball decently well. His historic production is not really what we need to look at to determine what his Nuggets contribution could be, it’s really how he’s been a bench player over the last 3-4 years and understanding the fit in those systems. As a volumn scorer and number one option in Denver and New York from 2003-2018, Carmelo was 25ish ppg on good shooting percentages but a high volume of shots.
Since being a role player, from 2018-present he averages 12.6 shots per game, 14.6 ppg, on 42.1% shooting percentage and 37.6% three point shooting. He also contributed five rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. Looking at last seasons roster, the Nuggets lost Monte Morris, Will Barton, Austin Rivers, Bryn Forbes, JaMycal Green, and Facundo Campazzo who made up about 50 shots per game. Now they are returning Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr who could both be 15-20 shot per game guys. And they obviously brought in some new players who could take 4-7 shots a game. There is not really the volume available for 12 shots, but if Carmelo could be productive with 6-10 shots a game, and could fall into the team mindset he could contribute.
The Nuggets starters last season were one of the best units in the NBA, and from an efficiency perspective it really was not that close… they had a really really bad bench unit, which routinely lost leads and made games harder than they had to be. Adding a veteran like Carmelo to a bench unit with Jeff Green, Bruce Brown could help elevate the young Bones Hyland and Zeke Nnaji. I could see a world where Carmelo slows down a game and doesn’t let opposing bench units go on big runs. I wonder if Carmelo knowing this coming season is a legit title contending run, sells out on the defensive side of the ball and elevates the team, regaining his once high seat on the Denver Sports top athletes ladder.
Conclusion
I think in the past I would have said absolutely not. After doing this deep dive, I actually think I changed my own mind. Carmelo, if he returns would have to change his number, and leave his mark and win his title without his trademarked powder blue #15. Nikola now rightfully owns the legacy behind that number, and Carmelo could reclaim some Nuggets lore with a new number. The position he plays, the style in which he plays, the narrative, the way he contributes, all seem to actually have a spot on the 2022-23 Denver Nuggets. Buy in to Michael Malones system, don’t stop rotations, and sell out on the defensive side of the ball, I could see it all working out.
Re-Sign the man.
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