Denver Nuggets Down the Stretch
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The Denver Nuggets are in the home stretch, with 15 games before the end of the 2022 NBA Regular Season, what do the statistics, standings, player injury status, and narratives tell us about the team and their probability for playoff success? We know that the team was just battered with four games in five nights due to rescheduling, we know that coach Malone has proclaimed Nikola Jokic is exhausted, we know the Nuggets were 8-2 in their last ten games, and we know that they are currently fighting with the Jazz to win their division and fending off the Timberwolves for the sixth seed in the Western Conference. Let’s take stock of all things Nuggets as they start to get into playoff mindset over the next four weeks.
Injuries
It is no secret that the Denver Nuggets have been pretty much treading water and trying to keep the ship afloat, simply biding time for Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr to return. In a previous article we detailed that this was likely one of the biggest reasons that at the trade deadline the team was somewhat quiet, especially with all the big names that were moved. We have been teased in the last few weeks with reports of both MPJ and Murray going down the G-League affiliate, the Grand Rapids Gold, to start getting into game shape. This report ended up stirring the pot and angered head coach Mike Malone, who responded to the claims that neither of these players was ready to play in the immediate future, with a statement that politely let everyone know there was no timetable, no pressure, and that both players would return when healthy and ready.
Now, as fans, we can take that with a grain of salt, in my opinion. The reality is that if MPJ was medically cleared for contact basketball as was reported, he himself has been shooting with the teams and practicing in some capacity, he has been on social media interacting with Isaiah Thomas about playing together, the Nuggets broadcasters are reporting that he looks incredible in shoot arounds, then all signs are pointing to the fact that he’s closer to returning than maybe Malone wanted to let out. Timetables are blurry, I don’t want to say I think he will play next week, but it sounds like MPJ is closer to returning than the organization wanted to let out.
Murray on the other hand, recovering from an ACL tear sustained in April of 2021, has been put into that category of “when he’s ready to return he’ll be back”. I read that Jamal Murray will be medically cleared to return by the end of the season, I think his timeline is more fluid and dependent on mental recovery. I believe this one more, because an ACL tear has a very serious mental recovery time, and Murray himself has said that he doesn’t want to step back on the court unless he is 100% himself. I think the injury typically has a 9–12-month recovery, and obviously basketball is 90% hard cutting, planting, and changing directions quickly, so the mental part of trusting your body to hold up is what takes the most patience.
Will Barton, Bones Hyland, Zeke Nnaji, and Aaron Gordon have all three been flirting with the injury report the last few games, but nothing incredibly serious as far as I am concerned. I think every NBA team is banged up 67 games into an 82-game marathon, these guys will get rest and treatment for a few days and will be back on the court before the end of the week.
Schedule
The Nuggets are 12-3 in their last 15 games, and they are only two games out of being the division leader behind the Utah Jazz, whom the Nuggets are 0-4 against this season. It was said that after the All-Star break, the Denver Nuggets had one of the easiest remaining schedules to finish out the year, and since that celebratory weekend, the Nuggets are 7-2 and have only had to play three road games. Of the Nuggets remaining 15 games, six of them are on the road and only two of our road games are against playoff teams.
60% of the teams last 15 games are home games, even though many of those home games are against playoff teams, the reality is that a home game against a playoff team, with a rest day before, is a better schedule then a back-to-back on the road versus a non-playoff team. All this spells a somewhat calming path into the post-season, and I’m sure the Nuggets players are thankful that they do not have another back-to-back for the rest of the season.
This schedule will be a welcome stretch as the team starts to narrow its focus into playoff rotations, playoff routines, and getting into the mindset it takes to win a playoff series. This schedule consistency is nice for building good playoff habits and really dialing in post-game recovery, next day practice and shoot around, as well as game day preparations to get into the playoff ritual. When Murray and MPJ do come back, this schedule will be beneficial to each player as they get back into game shape and work their way back into the rotations. When I look at the schedule, I don’t see an easy slate of games, as it stands today, they play 11 playoff teams in their last 15. But again, the cadence of those games and the home-away splits are in the Nuggets favor.
Other Teams Seeding and Schedules
This section is going to be short, but as far as the standings are concerned, the Nuggets are battling the Jazz, Mavericks, and Timberwolves for playoff positions 4-7 and the Nuggets only play a single game against the Timberwolves in their last 15, so they aren’t even really positioned to help themselves outside of just winning their own games.
The Timberwolves play eight road games in their last 14 games, 11 of their remaining games are against playoff teams, five of those 11 are on the road. They also get a chance to play against Dallas two times one home, and one away, and get the road game against our Nuggets, as mentioned above.
The Jazz have 17 games left, nine of which are on the road, they play three different sets of back-to-backs in the next four weeks. They have a brutal six game road trip and they play 12 playoff teams in their last 17. They only have a one opportunity to create separation with Dallas, similar to the Nuggets against the T-Wolves.
The Mavericks final 16 games consist of a five-game road trip that starts today against the Houston Rockets, followed by five straight playoff teams. Their schedule still has two sets of back-to-back games, and they have three opportunities to create separation with two games against the Timberwolves and a single game against the Jazz. The Mavericks play 10 playoff teams in their last 16 games and don’t have any long home stands to really recover.
The bright spot for the Nuggets here, is that the people we are competing against for playoff seeding have bad schedules against tough opponents, they play against each other three times, and we can create separation by beating the Timberwolves in our lone matchup before the end of the year. The outlook here is that the Nuggets are positioned to end this season strong, they could even climb higher than the current sixth seed with the kindness their schedule has provided.
MVP Status
Nikola Jokic deserves the MVP, but that isn’t how the award is handed out. This man defended his MVP season with an even better season, more efficiency, advanced metrics that are all-time highs, and dragging a team that was missing 2/3 highest paid players for most of the season, into the playoffs.
Nikola’s 2022 season was nothing short of amazing, he put together more triple doubles then a season before leading the league in that and Double Doubles, he’s leading the league in more categories than he was a season ago, his defense raised to levels nobody ever thought he’d get to, and he’s got highlight reel assists, game winners, game winning assists, game winning blocks, game winning steals, and a resume that should speak for itself.
The people that he is competing against are likely Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo, both of which are also having insane seasons, and are also deserving of an MVP award. The difference I would propose is that Nikola has done it with players that nobody has ever heard of outside of the Nuggets organization. Nikola has played with Davon Reed, Vlatko Cancar, Facundo Campazzo, Markus Howard, James Ennis III, Carlik Jones, Rayjon Tucker, and Bol Bol. The major injuries to Murray and MPJ aren’t the only factors, many players have been injured this season or missed time with illness. Not a single Nuggets player has been on the floor for all 67 games they have played this season.
Nikola is deserving of a back-to-back MVPs, and I think it would be highway robbery if it goes to someone else, considering Nikola currently has the Nuggets with the same number of wins as the Bucks and the 76ers. That being said, the narrative doesn’t feel like it is as strong this season, the national attention seems to be elsewhere. I don’t know how you follow up an MVP season with a statistically much stronger season and arguably the most efficient season in NBA history, while not securing the back-to-back, but that is how it feels to me. The narrative last season was “Nikola is the only candidate that played the entire season, all these other guys missed 20+ games”. That narrative is not fair to Nikola, basically saying he only won the award because of his availability, but as a Nuggets fan, I’ll take national recognition for our team anyway it is coming.
I’ll eat all the crow, gladly, if he wins the award, I will welcome being wrong here, and as stated above his stats and everything about his season screams MVP to me, but I am not the one making the decisions and it seems like the national media who creates the narrative likes to give the award to anybody else except Nikola.
6th Seed or Above
Last point here, wherever they end up seeding wise after everything is all said and done, the end goal is to get through the season healthy, return as many starters and role players as possible, win enough games to avoid being lower than the 6th seed. The Nuggets are already operating on what seems to be fumes and could really use the reinforcements of their young core returning to the court, but not having to play in the play-in tournament, two extra games as a 7th or 8th seed, is imperative.
As many of us are aware, they changed the NBA playoff format last year to include a four-team mini-bracket between the 7th-10th seeds where 7-8 play a single game, the winner gets the 7th seed. Then 9-10 play, where the winner advances to play the loser of the 7-8 seed game, and the winner of that game gets the 8th seed. After this mini bracket, the playoffs return to regular best of seven series format with traditional high vs low seeding.
My prediction: Nuggets win their division, get the 4th seed, return MPJ by the end of March and Jamal by early April. Nikola misses out on the MVP, but nobody thinks it was the right call, and he gets his revenge by leading the Nuggets to the Finals. If healthy, I think the Nuggets can beat any team in the league in a 7-game format. Nikola replaces the should-be 2022 MVP with a 2022 Finals MVP.
Additional Read – Nuggets Late Season Rotations
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